As tensions escalate following U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, worldwide concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a strategic chokepoint for global oil deliveries — is intensifying. China — one of Iran’s major buyers — could experience severe economic disruption if this narrow waterway closes completely.
One-fifth of global crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran. Any military conflict between them, and particularly between the US and Iran, risks paralyzing energy flows not just to Asia – with China most at risk from interruption.
Recent data from international energy analysts indicates that China has dramatically increased its purchases of Iranian oil over recent years, often by sidestepping sanctions through discrete shipping or barter arrangements. China imported more than 1.3 million barrels per day of Iranian crude in 2024 – making them Iran’s leading buyer by far.
Dr. Lian Zhou, an energy policy expert from Tsinghua University said China’s economic engine relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil supplies from Hormuz; any disruption could have widespread repercussions across its manufacturing and industrial sectors. A temporary closure could even cause fuel shortages, price spikes, and logistic bottlenecks that Beijing would struggle to absorb.
As a response to recent U.S. strikes, Iran has threatened to close off the Strait of Hormuz and send shockwaves through global oil markets. While the United States Navy maintains strong presence in the Gulf region to deter such actions from occurring, Iran has frequently used such threats as leverage during previous crises.
China, though historically aligned with Iran politically and economically, now finds itself in an uncertain position. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Beijing has called for restraint and dialogue while not directly criticizing U.S. airstrikes; instead it seems Beijing prioritizes maintaining regional stability to protect energy imports that it relies on for its economy.
“China would suffer in the short-term from any closure of Hormuz,” according to Jorge Martinez, an energy analyst from OilTrack Global. China may have enough strategic petroleum reserves in reserve to cover for several months’ worth of impactful costs associated with factories, transportation networks and consumer spending costs before further effects become noticeable.
Chinese Foreign Minister has issued a carefully worded statement, expressing “deep concern” at rising military activity in the Persian Gulf and encouraging all parties involved to exercise restraint, avoid provocative actions and return to diplomatic efforts. Officials did not elaborate further when it came to how China might react if the Strait were actually closed off.
Chinese tankers have already started rerouting or slowing transit through the Gulf amid rising security alerts, and insurance costs for shipping in this region have skyrocketed. Analysts caution that should hostilities worsen, Beijing may need to either withdraw its reserves faster than planned or find alternative sources that are limited or more expensive than planned.
As global leaders scramble to ease tensions, the vulnerability of the second-largest economy shows just how high the stakes have become in Iran’s dispute with the U.S. over access to the Strait of Hormuz – at its center lies this diplomatic standoff.